The basical macroeconomics indicators
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The basical macroeconimics indicators.
The level of Macroeconomics is concerned either on with
the economy as a whole or with the basic subdivisions of aggregates - such as
government, household and business sec-tors - which meke up the economy. An
aggregate is a collection of the specific economics units which are treated as
if they were one unit. Macroeconomics overviews all economy by generally
outlining the mainest aggregates which construct the economy. That's why such
words as total, general are always used in Macroeconomics. That is the part of
eco-nomics concerned with the economy as a whole; with such major aggregates as
house-holds, business and governmental sectors and with totals for the ec. So,
tha basical Macro-economics indicators are: Gross National Product (GNP), Price
level, Interest Reate and Employment.
GNP: It is generally agreed that the best available
indicator of economy health is its annual output of goods and services, or
so-called aggregate output. This is called GNP and is de-fined as the total
market value of all final goods & services produced in ec in one year. The
definition of the GNP is very explicit and merits comments. First, GNP measures
the market value of annual output. Second, GNP is a monetary measure. To
measure all output accurately we should count all goods and services only once.
That is why GNP increasereaseludes only final goods and services and ignores
transactions involving intermediate goods and services. By Final meant such
goods and services that are purchased for final use and not to be sold in
future (resale), or other processing or manufac-turing. Directly opposite goods
and services are called intermediate. Intermediate goods and services are
excluded from GNP cause it could involve double countintg. Alot of
nonproduction transactions must be carefully excluded fron GNP: financial
transaction (public transfer payments - to increasereaselude them to GNP would
be to overstate this year's production; private transfer payments - simp-ly
transfer of funds to one person to another; security transactions - buying or
selling stocks in the stock market.) secondhand sales (Such sales either
reflect no current production or they involve double counting.) Actually GNP
can be determined either by adding up all that is spent to buy this year's
total output or by summing up all the increasereaseomes derived from the
production of this year's output. The formula GNP can be determined looks like
this:
GNP = C + Ig + G + Xn
where C stands for personal consumption expenditures
(expenditures by houselods on durable consumer goods: automobiles, houses,
VCRs, and so on; nondurable consumer googs: milk, bread, beer, toothpaste,
clothes, etc.; consumer expenditures for services of lawers, doctors,
barbers), Ig means Gross Private Domestic Investment, G governmental
purchases of goods and services, and Xn stands for Net Exports, is the amount
by which foreign spending on American goods and services exceeds American
spending on foreign goods and servi-ces. All these categories of expenditures
shown above increasereaselude all possible types of spend-ing. Added together
they reflect the year's GNP.
Measuring the price level.
The price level is stated as an index number. A price
index measures the combened price of particular collections of goods &
services, called a "marked basket".
Price index Price of
market basket in a given year
in a given year =
——————————————————————— X 100%
Price of the same basket in the base year
The Federal government computes price indexes os several
different collections (or market baskets) of goods and services. The best knonw
of these indexes are Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the prices of a
fixed market basket of some 300 consumer goods and services purchased by a
typical urban consumer. The GNP price index or GNP deflator , however, is more
useful than the CPI for measuring the overall price level. GNP deflator also
increasereaseludes the prices of investment goods, goods and services purchased
by government, and g & s wich enter into world trade.
This paragraph summary.
1. GNP is a basic measure of society's economic
performance, is the market value of all final goods and services produced in a
year. Intermediate goods, nonproduction transacti-ons and secondhand sales are
excluded from calculating GNP.
2. By the expenditures approach GNP is determined by
adding consumer purchases of goods and services, gross investment spending by
businesses, goverment purchases of goods and services and net exports.
3. Gross investment can be divided into: replacement
investment (required to maintain the nation's stock of capital at its existing
level), and net investment (the net increasereaserease in the stock of
capital) Positive net investment is associated with a grown economy, negative
- with a decreaselining economy.
4. By the increasereaseome or allocations approach GNP is
calculated as a sum of compensation to employees, rents, interest, proprietors'
increasereaseome, corporate increasereaseome taxes, dividends, undistributed
corporate profits, and the two nonincreasereaseome charges (capital consumption
allowance & inderect business taxes)
5. Other important national increasereaseome accounting
measures are derived from the GNP. Net national product (NNP) is GNP less the
capital consumption allowance. National increasereaseome (NI) is total
increasereaseome earned by resource suppliers; it is found by subtracting
inderect busi-ness taxes from NNP. Personal increasereaseome (PI) is the total
increasereaseome paid to households prior to any allowance for personal taxes.
Disposable increasereaseome (DI) is personal increasereaseome after personal
taxes have been paid. DI measures the amount of increasereaseome households
have available to consume or save.
6. Price indexes are computed by comparing the price of a
specific collection or "market basket" of output in a given period
to the price (cost) of the same market basket in a base period and multiplying
the outcome (quotient) by 100. The GNP deflator is the price indexused to
adjust normal GNP to to account for inflation or deflation and thereby to
obtain real GNP.
7. Nominal (current dollar) GNP measures each year's
output valued in terms of the prices prevailing in that year. Real (constant
dollar) GNP measures each year's output valued in terms of the prices
prevailing in a selected base year. Because it is adjusted for price level
changes, real GNP measures the level of production activity.
Nominal GNP
—————————————— = Real GNP
Price
index (in hundredths)
8. The various national increasereaseome accounting
measures exclude nonmarket and illegal transactions, changes in leisure and
product quality, the composition and distribution of output, and the
environmental effects of production. Nevertheless, these measures are resonably
accurate and very useful indicators of the nation's economic performance.
Aggregate demand & Aggregate supply
Aggregate demand - is a schedule, graphically represented
by a curve, which shows various amounts of goods and services - the amount of
real national output - which consumers, businesses and government collectively
will desire to purchase at each possible price level.
Conversely, the higher the price level, the smaller will
be the national output they desire to purchase. That's exactly what indicates
the downsloping AD curve. The rationale for a downsloping AD curve rests
primarily upon three factors.
1. Interest-rate effect
As the price level rises so will interest rates and risng
interest rates will cause reduction in certain kinds of consumption and
investment spending. AD curve assumes that the suplly of money in the economy.
When the price level increasereasereases, consumers will need to have more
money on hand to make purchases and businesses will similarly require more
money to meet the payrolls and purchase other needed inputs. In short, a higher
price level will increasereaserease the demand for money. Given a fixed supply
of money, this increasereaserease in demand will drive up the price paid for
the use of money. that price, of course, is the Interest Rate. High IRs will
curtail certain interest -sensetive expenditures by businesses &
households.
Conclusion: A high price level - by increasereasereasing
the demand for money and the Interset Rate - causes a reduction in the amount
of real output demanded.
2. Wealth effect
A second reason why the AD curve is downsloping involves
the Wealth or Real Balances Effect. The idea here is that at a higher price
level the real value of purchasing power of the accumulated finansial assets -
In particular, assets with fixed money values such as savings, accounts or
bonds - held by the public will deminish. Conversely a decreaseline in the
price level will increasereaserease the real value or purchasing power of one's
wealth and tend to increasereaserease spending
3. Foreign Purchases effect
The Foreign Purchases effect of a price-level
increasereaserease results in a decreaseline in the aggregate amount of
American goods and services demanded. Conversely, a relative dicline a our
price level will reduce our imports and increasereaserease our exports,
Thereby, increasereasereasing the NE component of American AD
Aggregate supply - is a schedule, graphically represented
by a curve, indicating the level of real natn'l output which will be available
at each possible price level.
High price levels create an increasereaseentive for
enterprises to produce additional output and offer it for sale. Lower price
levels cause reductions in output. As a result the relationship between the
price level & the amount national output businesses offer for sale is
direct or positive.
The AS curve shows the level of real national output
which will be produced at variuos price levels. It comprises three ranges: a
horizontal (or Keynesian) range wherein the price level remains constant as
Ntn'l output varies; a vertical (or Classical) wherein the Ntn'l output is
constant at the full-employment level and the price level can vary; and
intermediate range wherein both: real output and the price level are variable.
This paragraph summary.
1. It is useful for purposes of analysys to consolidate -
or aggregate - the outcomes from the enormous number of individual product
markets into a composite market in which the key variables are the price level
and the level of Real National Output. This is acomplished thru an AD-AS model
of the economy
2. The AD curve shows the level of Real National Output
which the economy will purchase at each possible price level
3. The rationale for the downsloping AD curve is based
upon the Interest-Rate effect, the Wealth (or the Real Balances effect) and the
Foreign purchases effect. The Interest-Rate effect indicates that, given supply
of money, a high price level will increaserease the demend for money, thereby
increasereaseing the interest rate and reducing those consumption and investment
purchases which are interest rate sevsetive. The Wealth effect indicates that
inflation will reduce the real value of purchasing power of fixed-value
financial assets held by households and will thereby cause them to retranch on
their consumer spending. The FPE suggest that a change in the US' price level
relative to other countries will change the NE componemt of the US AD in the
opposite direction.,
4. The major non-price-level determinants of AD are
spending by domestic consumers, businesses, government & foreign buyers.
5. The AS curve shows the level of Real National Output
which the will be produced at each various possible price levels.
6. The shape of the AS curve depends upon what happends
to per unit production costs - and threfore to the prices which businesses must
receive to cover costs and make a rpofit - as Real National Output expends. The
Keynaisian range of the curve is horizontal because, with subtantial
unemployment production can be increasereased without per unit costs or price
increasereases. In the intermediate range, per unit costs increaserease as
production bottlenecks appear and less efficient equipment and workers are
employed. Prices must therefore rise as Real National Output is expended in
this range. The Classical range coinsides with full employment; Real National
Output is at a maximum and cannot be increasereasereased but the price level
will rise in response to an increaserease in AD.
7. the major non-price-level determinants of AS are input
prices, productivity and the legal-institution environment. All else being
equal a change in one of these factors will change per unit production costs at
each level of output and threfore alter the location of the AS curve.
8. The intersection of the AD and AS curves determines equilibrium
price level and Real National Output.
9. Given AS rightward shifts of AD will:
a) Increase Real National Output and employment
but not alter the price level in the Keyneisian range;
b) Increase both Real National Output and the
price level in the intermediate range;
c) Increase the price level but not change Real
National Output in the Classical range.
10. The ratchet effect is based upon the nototion that
prices are flexible upward but, relatively inflexible downward. Hence, an
increaserease in AD will raise the price level, but in the short term prices
cannot be expected to fall when demand decrease.
11. The basic aggregate demand and supply model is a
springboard for a more detailed and comprehensive study of Macroeconomic
analysys and issues.
Macroeconomic instability: unemployment & inflation
Unemployment
"Full unemployment is an elusive concept to define.
A person might initially interpret it to mean that evryone who is in the labor
market - 100% of the labor force - is employed. But such isn't the case some
unemployment is regarded as normal or warranted.
Types of unemployment
Let us approach the task of defining full employment by
distinguishing among several different types of employment.
Frictional unemployment
Given freedom to choose occupations & jobs, at any
point in time some workers will be "between jobs". Some workers will
be in the process of volountarily switching jobs. Others will have been fired
and are seeking reemployment. Still others will be temporarily laid off from
their jobs cause of seasonality or modal changeovers as in aotomobile industry
and there will be some workers particularly young people, searching for their
first jobs. Economists use the term Frictional unemployment which consists of
search unemployment and wait unemployment, for the group of workers whop are
either searching for jobs or waiting to take jobs to the near future. The
adjactive "frictional" implies that the labor market doesn't operate
perfectly and instan-taneousely - that's without friction in matching workers
& jobs. Frictional unemployment is regarded is inevitable and, at least
inpart, desirable.
Structural unemployment
Frictional unemployment shades into a second category,
called structural In this regard, economists use the term
"structural" in the sense of "compisitional". Important
changes occur overtime in the "structure" of consumer demand and in
tecnology which alter the structure of the total demand for labour. Because of
suchchanges some particular skills will be in less demand or may even become
obsolete. The demand for other skills will be expending, including new skills
which previously did not exist. Unemployment results because the composition of
the labor force doesn't respond weekly or completely to the new structure of
job opportunities. As a result some workers find that they have no readily
marketable talents; Their skills and experience have been rendered obsolets and
unwanted by changes in technology and consumer demand.
This paragraph summary.
1. Our economy has been characterized by fluctiations in
national output, employment and the price level. Although characterized by
common phases - peak, recession, trough, reco-very - business cycles vary
greately in duration and intensity.
2. Although the business cycle has been explained in
terms of such ultimate causal factors as innovations, political events, and
money creation, it is generally agreed that the level of totel spending is the
immediate determinant of national output and employment.
3. All sectors of the economy are affected by the
business cycle but in varying ways and degrees. The cycle has greater output
and employment remifications in the capitel goods and durable consumer goods
industries than is does in nondurable goods industries. Over the cycle, price
fluctuations are greater in competetive than in monomolistic industries.
4. Economsts distinguish between frictional, structural
and cyclical unemployment. The full-employment or natural rate of unemployment
is currently believed to be between 5 and 6%. The accurate measurement of
unemployment is complicated by the existance of parttime and discouraged
workers.
5. The economic cost of unemployment as measured by the
GNP gap, consists of the goods & services which society foregoes when its
resources are involountarily idle. Okun's law suggests that every one person
increase in unemployment above the natural rate gives rise to a 2.5%
GNP gap.
Classical & Keynesian theories of employment
1. Classical employment theory envisonet laissez faire
capitalism as being capable of providing virtually continous full employment.
This analysys was based on Say's Law and the assumption of price-wage
flexibility.
3. Classical employment theory also held that even if
temporary declines in total spending where to occur, these declines would be
compensated for by downdard price wage adjustments in such a way that real
output, employment, and real income wouldn't decline.
4. Keyneisian employment theory rejects the notion that
the interest rate would equate saving and investment by pointing out that
savers & investors are substantially different groups who make their saving
& investment decisions for different reasons - reasons which, for savers,
are largely unralated to the interest rate. Further more, because of changes in
a) The publics holdings of money balances;
b) Loans made by banks and other financial
institutions, the supply of funds may exceed op fall short of current saving to
the end that saving & investment will not be equal.
5. Keyneisian economists discredit price-wage flexibility
on both practical and theoretical grounds. They argue that
a) Union and business monopolists, minimum-wage
legislation, and a host of related factors have virtually eliminated the
possibility of substantial price-wage reductions;
b) Price-wage cuts will lower total income and
therefore the demand for labor.
6. The Classical & Keyneisian views can be
illustrated thru the AD-AS model. Classical economists envision
a) A vertical AS curve which establishes the level of
output;
b) A stable AD curve which establishes the price
level ;
Keyneisians see
a) A horizontal AS curve at less-than-full-employment
levels of output;
b) Inherenlty unstable AD curve.
7. The basic tools of Key employment theory are the
Consumtion (C), Saving (S) and Investment (I) schedules, which show the various
amounts that households intend to consume and save and that businesses plan to
invest at the various possible income-output levels given a particular price
level.
8. The locations of the consumption and Saving schedules
are determined by such factors as:
a) The amount of wealth owned by households;
b) The price level;
c) Expectations of future income, future prices and
product availability;
d) The relative size of consumer indebtedness;
e) Taxation;
The consumption and saving schedules are relatively
stable.
9. The average propensities to consume and save show
the proportion of fraction of any level of total income that is consimed and
saved. The marginal propensities to consume and save show the proportion of
fraction of any change in total income that is consumed or saved.
10. The immediate determinants of investment are:
a) The expected rate of net profit;
b) The real rate of interest
The economy's investment-demand curve can be determined
by cumulating investment projrcts and arraying them in descending order
according to their expected net profitability and applying the rule that
investment will be profitable up to the point at which the real interest rate
equals the expected rate of net profit. The investment-demand curve reveals and
inverse relationship between th interest rate and the level of aggregate
investment.
11. Shifts in the investment-demand curve can occur as
the result of chandes in
a) The acquisition, maintenance and operating costs
of capital goods;
b) Business taxes;
c) Thechnology;
d) The stocks of capital goods on hand;
e) Expectations.
12. We make the simplifying assumtion that the level of
investment determined by the current interest rate and the investment-demand
curve doesn't vary with the level of aggregate income.
13. The durability of capital goods, the irregular
occurence of major innovations profit vo-latility, and the variability of
expectations all contribute to the instability of investment spending.
Equilibrium National output in Keynesian model
1. For a closed no-government economy the equilibrium
level of NNP is that at which the aggregate expenditures and national output
are equal or graphically where the C + In line intersects the 45-degree line.
At any NNP greater than the equilibrium NNP, national output will exceed
aggregate spending resulting in unintended investment in inventories, depressed
profits and eventual declines in output employment and income. At any below
equilibrium NNP the aggregate expenditures will exceed the national output,
thereby resulting in unintended disinvestment in inventories, substantial
profits and evential increases in NNP.
Fiscal Policy
1. Government responsibility for acheiving and
maintaining full employment is set forth in the Employment Act of 1946. The
Council Economic Advicers (CEA) was established to advise the President on
policies appropriate to fulfiling the goals of the act. The Humphrey-Hawkins
Act of 1978 contens specific inflation and unemployment rate objectives.
2. Increases in government spending expand, and decreases
contract, the equilibrium NNP. Converserly, increases in taxes reduce, and
decreases expand the equilibrium NNP. Ap-propriate fiscal policy therefore
calls for increases in government spending and decreases in taxes - that is,
for a budget deficit - to correct for unemployment. Decreases in government
spending and increases in taxes - that is, a budget surplus - are appropriate
fiscal policy for correcting demand-pull inflation.
3. The balanced-budget multiplier indicates that equal
increases in government spending and taxation will increase the equilibrium NNP
by the amount of the increase in goverment expenditures and taxes.
4. Built-in stability refers to the fact that net tax
(NT) revenues vary directly with the level of NNP. Therefore, during a
rescession the public budget automatically tends toward a stabilizing deficit;
Converserly, during expension the budget automatically tends toward an
anti-inflationary surplus. Built-in stability ameliorates, but doesn't correct,
undesired changes in the NNP.
5. The full-employment budget indicates what the Federal
budgetary surplus or dificit would be if the economy operated at full
employment throughout the year. The full-employment budget is a more meaginful
indicator of the government's fiscal posture than is its actual budgetary
surplus or deficit.
6. The enactment and application of appropriate fiscal
policy and subject to certain pro-blems and question. Some of the most
important are these
a) Can the enactment and application of fiscal
policy be better timed so as to maximize its effictiveness in heading off
economic fluctuations?
b) Can the economy rely upon Congress to enact
appropriate fiscal policy?
c) An expansionary fiscal policy maybe weakened if
it crowds out some private invest-ment spendig;
d) Some of the effect of an expansionary fiscal
policy maybe dissipated in inflation;
e) Fiscal policy maybe rendered ineffective or
inappropriate by unforeseen events occuring within the world economy. Also
fiscal policy may precipitate changes in exchange rates which weaken its
effects;
f) Suplly-side economists contend that Keynesian
fiscal policy fails to consider the effects of tax changes upon AS.
Monetary Policy
1. Like fiscal policy, the goal of monetary policy is to
assist the economy in acdheiving a full-employment, noninflationary level of
total output.
2. For a consideration of monetary policy the most
important assets of the Federal Reserve Banks are securities and loans to
commercial banks. The basic liabilities are the reserves of member banks,
Treasury deposits & Federal Reserve Notes.
3. The three major instruments of monetary policy are
a) open-market operations;
b) changing the reserve ratio;
c) changing the discount rate;
4. Minor selective controls involve the margin
requirement, consumer credit & moral suasion.
5. Keynesians envision monetary policy as operating
through a complex cause-effect chain
a) policy decisions effect commercial bank
reserves;
b) changes in reserves effect the supply of money;
c) changes in the supply of money alter the
interest rate;
d) Changes in the interest rate affect investment,
the equilibrium NNP and the price level;
6. The advantages of monetary policy include its
flexibility and political asseptability. Further, monetarists feel that the
supply of money is the single most important determinant of the level of
national output.
7. Monetary policy is subject to a number of limitations
and the problems
a) They excess reserves which an easy money policy
provides may not be used by banks to expend the supply of money;
b) Policy-instigated changes in the supply of
money maybe pertially offset by changes in the velocity of money;
c) The impact of monetary policy will be lessened
if the money-demand curve is flat ant the investment-demand is steep. The
investment-demand curve may also shift so as to negate monetary policy.
8. The monetory authorities face a policy dilemma in that
they can stabilize interest rates or the money supply but not both. In the
post-World War II period monetary policy has shifted from stabilizing interest
rates to controlling the money supply and more recently to a more progmatic
position.
9. The impact of an easy money policy upon domestic NNP
strangthed by an accompa-nying increase in net exports precipitated by a lower
domestic interest rate. Likewise, a tight money policy is strengthed by a
decline in net exports. In some sircumstances there maybe a trade off between
the use of monetary policy to affect the value of the dollar and thus to
currect at rage imbalance and the use of monetary policy to achieve domestic
stability.
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