Теория социокультурных систем как основа для потенциального анализа конфликтов english
THEORY OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS
AS FOUNDATION FOR POTENTIAL CONFLICTS
ANALYSIS
Simferopol - 1989
This article is
the brief presentation of the theory of socio-cultural systems. In this particular
case, we make an accent on the aspect of applying the theory to analysis of
potential conflicts. First of all, we wish to define more precisely the
principal terms used further.
SOCIO-CULTURAL
SYSTEM (SCS) - type of the
socio-cultural formations dominating in a socio-cultural evolution. SCS-s
include main part of the World’s population and inhabited territories. SCS-s
are characterised by great sizes of their territories and considerable
quantities of own population; they possess original standards of a space,
society and state organisation as well as many unique qualities because of
those they do differ drastically from the rest of the socio-cultural formations.
Unique
characteristics of SCS-s are as follows: ability to expand own homeland at the
expense of socio-cultural assimilation of a new territories; ability to
generate complicated structure of own space, with internal buffer zones, in
order to protect and defend itself from other SCS-s; complete cycle of the
space socio-cultural assimilation which includes seven principal stages;
domination of the inner logic over outer factors which are always used in a
strict correspondence with the SCS’ evolution internal order; ability to create
naturally dependent vassals in a course of socio-cultural transformation of
other territories; own world religion, or its own unique version; ability to
widen a circulation of own language outside own homeland, and first of all - in
the internal buffer zone and among the naturally dependent vassals; reliability
and self-sufficiency of own economy; ability to generate and invent stable
original economic standards and forms which may have no analogues outside a
specific SCS.
There are eight
SCS-s, and in the process of their evolution, each of them goes through seven
stages. With this, at every stage SCS-s acquire specific distinguished forms.
Thus, there are 56 essentially different external forms of SCS-s to understand
which we should base all the theoretical interpretations on a correct
generalisation of a very high level.
INTERNAL
BUFFER ZONE OF SCS -
qualitatively original and distinctive socio-cultural part of the SCS’s space
that is always located on the “outskirts” of the SCS’s homeland, along its
borders with other socio-cultural formations. Internal buffer zone is destined
mainly to protect homeland of a particular SCS from immediate contacts with
alien SCS-s and their possible aggression. It may border with an external
socio-cultural buffer zone as well as an internal buffer zone of a neighbouring
SCS. Organisation of an internal buffer zone is characterised by many
distinctive qualities determined by the specific evolutionary process of the
SCS this particular buffer zone belongs to.
EXTERNAL
SOCIO-CULTURAL BUFFER ZONE
- type of the socio-cultural formations that evolves to separate two or more
alien SCS-s. As a rule, external buffer zones border not immediately with the
SCS-s, but with their internal buffer zones completely controlled by their own
SCS-s. External buffer zone as a special socio-cultural formation is characterised
by extreme instability and dependence on dynamics of those SCS-s it separates.
Classic examples
of the external buffer zones as a special type of the socio-cultural formations
that separate Western and Russian SCS-s are East-European buffer zone (Poland,
Czech State, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) and North-European buffer
zone (Finland, Sweden, Norway).
SOCIO-CULTURAL
DOMAIN (SCD) - type of the
socio-cultural formations that is quite similar to socio-cultural system, but
possesses a substantial quantity of principal distinctions. It’s characterised
by stable and prolonged existence as well as specific economic, social and
cultural forms. Fundamental differences compare to SCS are that SCD-s are
categorically unable to assimilate and transform new territories into own
homeland, expanding it with this, and create naturally dependent vassals: so,
there is no systematic work with space as in case of a socio-cultural systems.
The effect is a sort of socio-cultural conservation: SCD-s do not change /
expand their own space and in general do not evolve in themselves during very
prolonged periods; modern results of such phenomenon are quite modest sizes of
their territories. Another essential SCD-s distinction from SCS-s manifests
itself in their extraordinary situational behaviour.
At the present
level of knowledge about socio-cultural formations and processes, there is no
possibility to determine the reasons for emerging differences of socio-cultural
systems and domains with respect to space, but it’s possible to describe all
the details and components of these distinctions.
Examples are
Japanese and Judaic SCD-s.
MIXED
SOCIO-CULTURAL REGION - territory
that has no distinct internal socio-cultural dominant and where various
socio-cultural formations (SCS-s, SCD-s and buffer zones) co-exist. As a rule,
these are regions of the young historical assimilation that, in some
perspective, gain socio-cultural certainty, but with this may retain in their
boundaries presence of a several socio-cultural formations. Most probable
evolution of mixed socio-cultural regions is into naturally dependent vassals
and external buffer zones, and as a more rare case - into part of the homeland
of some SCS.
HOMELAND - the most profoundly transformed in a
socio-cultural respect territory where representatives of a certain
socio-cultural formation lived and / or still live during historically
prolonged interval of time, absolutely securing this territory as their own.
Homeland’s territory is always furiously protected and defended from any
outside invasions. Representatives of the alien socio-cultural formations may
be present there only for a brief time and with many a restrictions that
especially concerns homelands of socio-cultural systems.
NATURALLY
DEPENDENT VASSAL -
relatively integral territory with own population that retains some unprincipal
differences from the neighbouring, dominating over it SCS, but became this SCS’
inalienable part as a result of prolonged and systematic socio-cultural
transformation. It is important that sizes of states - naturally dependent
vassals may vary essentially: the point isn’t size in itself, but a special
socio-cultural type of these formations. Naturally dependent vassals may
possess a considerable amount of political and economic independence, have
quite complicated, and at times conflicting, relationships with their
dominants, being actually just a part of a dominating SCS.
ENCLAVE - territory of a historically temporary
domination of a particular SCS within another socio-cultural formation. Genesis
and evolution of enclaves are diverse and in many respects depend on specific
characteristics of a particular SCS’ dynamics. As a rule, enclaves are
generated during process of expanding areas controlled by one or another SCS.
They carry out important socio-cultural tasks, but are not lasting as from
historical point of view. Next in turn stage of the SCS evolution may become the
reason for enclave’s degradation, even in the absence of an external pressure.
* * *
To analyse
potential conflicts, it’s extremely important to take into consideration typological
and time –spatial characteristics of the socio-cultural formations’ nature that
are described in detail in our articles (5, 6).
We suggest typological description of socio-cultural
systems (SCS), socio-cultural domains (SCD), socio-cultural buffer zones, and
mixed socio-cultural regions, according to the following plan:
SOCIO-CULTURAL
SPACE: Relatively large
areas of permanent inhabitancy; Homeland where significant quantities of its
population live permanently; Ability to expand the homeland, through
assimilation into it new territories; Ability to generate complicated internal
structure of own socio-cultural space, as a response to demands from the
outside (existence of an internal buffer zones); Ability to generate
civilisations as a form of the own territory sporadic colonisation and
assimilation, at the early stages of evolution; Ability to independently
generate one or several stable states within own socio-cultural space;
Concentration of the considerable reserves of vitally important natural
resources within own socio-cultural space; Ability to generate ecological crises
as a steps in assimilating own socio-cultural space.
SOCIO-CULTURAL
TIME: Stable existence
during historically considerable intervals of time; Complete cycle of the own
socio-cultural space formation which includes series of successive stages
determined by the inner logic of the space evolution.
CONTACTS WITH
OUTER WORLD: Correlation
of inner logic and outer factors. Ability to resist socio-cultural pressure
from the outside; Ability to create socio-cultural enclaves to transform and
assimilate alien territories; Ability to create socio-cultural enclave-communities;
Ability to establish colonies, military-political and economic vassals outside
own homeland; Ability to create naturally dependent vassals in a course of a
socio-cultural transformation of other territories.
POPULATION: Existence of a relatively large quantities
of own population; Ability to conduct a successive socio-cultural assimilation
of alien population, by including it into own structure together with the new
territories; Ability of population to retain its qualitative specific
characteristics within alien socio-cultural formations; Extent of a
socio-cultural homogeneity of the population; Ability to generate migrations of
population for socio-cultural transformation of other territories; Ability to
generate migrations of population to diffuse it into other socio-cultural
formations, with no purpose of their transformation; Ability to maintain multinational
structure of population, with various languages, within own socio-cultural
formation.
RELIGION,
LANGUAGE AND SPIRITUAL CULTURE: Own specific world religion, or its own unique version; Ability to
propagate and diffuse own version of religion outside own socio-cultural
formation for transformation of other territories; One or several dominant
languages; Ability to widen circulation of the own dominant language(-s) as a
daily used one(-s) outside own socio-cultural formation.
ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTIVE FORCES: Extent of reliability
and self-sufficiency of the socio-cultural formation’s economy; Ability to
generate stable original economic standards and forms; Ability to generate
technological innovations for socio-cultural purposes; Ability to conduct
wide-scale economic actions of sabotage aimed against socio-cultural competitors.
The
full typological description of the socio-cultural formations in accordance
with the above named points counts for a 100 pages; it is partly published in
our works (5, 6). The great importance of such typology for the potential
conflict analysis is that it defines the standard situations when military,
political, economic, and social conflicts may arise. There is a strict logic of
their situational rising as well as evolution of the conflict complete cycle.
* * *
An important
achievement of our theory is that it presents the possibility to create correct
models of time-spatial processes in the course of socio-cultural formations’
evolution. It is now possible to describe the evolution of the socio-cultural
formations’ morphology. These “space-time” models of the SCS-s evolution were
published in our articles (5, 6). Unfortunately, it is impossible to reproduce
all of them here once more: there are 56 models characterising periods of the
SCS-s evolution and some extra 122 models characterising subperiods in the
SCS-s evolution. Below is the list of periods in the various SCS-s evolution.
BARBARIAN-NOMADIC SCS
1. Initial period of the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS
existence, surrounded by neighbours not internally ready to integrate with it
socio-culturally (from ancient times until I century AD). 2. Establishing the
buffer zone with Western SCS (I century - end of the IV century AD). 3.
Socio-cultural integration of Barbarian-Nomadic and Western SCS. Rise of the
renewed Western SCS (end of the IV century - second half of the VII century
AD). 4. Creating the buffer zones between Barbarian-Nomadic SCS and all of its
neighbouring SCS-s (from second half of the VII century until late XII
century). 5. Socio-cultural integration of Barbarian-Nomadic SCS with all the
neighbouring, accessible to it SCS-s. Socio-cultural assimilation of the Barbarian-Nomadic
SCS territory and population into these SCS (late XII - 1380-s). 6. Rise of the
Barbarian-Nomadic SCS residual homeland and population. Conflict of various
neighbouring SCS-s for its socio-cultural assimilation, with the Barbarian-Nomadic
SCS itself marionette participation in the process (late XIV century - middle
of the XX century). 7. Establishing the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS residual homeland
and population on the borders of Russian and Chinese SCS-s as their external
buffer zone (from the second half of the XX century and for some future)
MUSLIM SCS
1. Initial sporadic colonisation of the
homeland territory in the most ancient civilisations and unknown old centres of
inhabitancy (XXX - VII centuries BC). 2. Initial spatial defining of the Muslim
SCS territory and its early acquisition in the form of Empires. Conflict with
Western SCS of its second stage for buffer spaces (750-s - 330-s BC). 3.
Socio-cultural contest of Muslim SCS. Creating the internal buffer zones on
borders with Western SCS. Assimilation of the other socio-cultural systems’
population within the Muslim territories (from 330-s BC until early VII century
AD). 4. Islam as the product of the socio-cultural contest; unification of the
Muslim territories based on Islam. Beginning of the Muslim controlled spaces
growth, and establishing the buffer zones between Muslim SCS and all of its
neighbouring SCS-s (Western, Barbarian-Nomadic, Hindu and Black African) (early
VII century - 1258). 5. Socio-cultural integration with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS.
Further growth of the Muslim controlled spaces into the territories of Black
African and Hindu SCS-s. Creating the military-political vassals and buffer
zones with all the neighbouring SCS-s (1258 - early XVIII century). 6. Conflict
for buffer spaces with various SCS-s. Loss of the military-political vassals
and the alien socio-cultural systems’ permanent presence in the Muslim
homeland. Diffusion of the Muslim communities outside the Muslim homeland
(early XVIII century - 1970-s). 7. Liberation of the Muslim homeland and its
internal buffer zones from the alien socio-cultural systems’ permanent presence.
Political-geographical transformation of the Muslim SCS space based on its own
socio-cultural standards. Conflict with other SCS-s for the external buffer
zones (from 1970-s and for some future)
CHINESE SCS
1. Initial period of the Chinese population
existence and Chinese SCS creation (from legendary Hsia Dynasty 1800 - 1500 BC
to Eastern Chou Dynasty 770 BC). 2. Socio-cultural contest for creating the
most efficient socio-cultural standard for Chinese SCS (from 770 to 221 BC -
Eastern Chou Dynasty). 3. Unification of the Chinese SCS territory based on the
chosen socio-cultural standard. Beginning of the homeland growth and
establishing the naturally dependent vassals (221 BC - 317 AD). 4. Creating the
internal buffer zone on the North, new naturally dependent vassals on the West
and new homeland on the South (317 - 1211 AD). 5. Socio-cultural integration
with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS. Creating the internal buffer zones, naturally
dependent vassals and homeland growth on the South. Unification of the
socio-culturally transformed territories into the united state (from 1211 until
1840-s). 6. Defining the buffer zones’ territories through conflict with
various SCS-s. Military, political and economic presence of alien
socio-cultural systems in the Chinese homeland. Beginning of the Chinese
population intensive diffusion around the World (from 1840-s until the Great
Cultural Revolution). 7. Creating the integral internal buffer zone and
liberation of the Chinese homeland from the alien socio-cultural systems’
presence. Establishing the Chinese enclave-communities within Western SCS and
the mixed socio-cultural regions (as from the end of the Great Cultural
Revolution and for some future)
WESTERN SCS
1. Initial period of the Western population
existence and Western SCS creation. Initial sporadic colonisation of the
homeland territory in the most ancient civilisations (from ancient times until
770 - 750-s BC). 2. Greek-Roman times. Western homeland growth. Rise of the
first Empires and Greek-Roman communities outside the homeland. Establishing
the buffer zone with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS (770 - 750-s BC - 380-s AD). 3.
Socio-cultural integration with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS. Transformation and
further expansion of the homeland. Creating internal buffer zones. Defining the
new ideological grounds of Western SCS based on Roman Catholicism (from 380-s
AD until the Crusades beginning). 4. Socio-cultural contest of Western SCS.
Transformation of the Pyrenees Muslim enclave into internal buffer zone.
Creating naturally dependent vassals in the East-European buffer zone.
Expansion outside own homeland into the mixed socio-cultural regions (from the
Crusades beginning until the discovery of America). 5. Global overseas colonial
expansion of Western national states. Growth of the homeland in the mixed
socio-cultural regions with Western predominance (1490-s - 1918). 6. Global war
against other socio-cultural systems headed by Russian SCS. Losing the control
over colonies. Reversion of Western population into own homeland and its
redistribution between the mixed socio-cultural regions with Western
predominance and traditional Western territories (1918 - 1990-s). 7.
Transformation of the European homeland and stimulating further population
redistribution between the territories of old homeland and mixed socio-cultural
regions with Western predominance. Creating the American and South-Eastern
internal and external buffer zones (from 1990-s and for some future)
RUSSIAN SCS
1. Initial period of the Slavonic world
existence, with undeveloped socio-cultural differences (from ancient times
until 882 AD). 2. Period of the socio-cultural differences defining in the
Slavonic world. Early accumulation of the Russian SCS territory and population
as well as establishing the internal and external buffer zones (from 882 until
middle - end of the XI century). 3. Socio-cultural contest for creating the
most efficient socio-cultural standard for Russian SCS. Socio-cultural
integration with barbarian-nomadic SCS (from the end of the XI century until
1572). 4. Creating the united Russian State, with utmost homeland, based on
Moscow socio-cultural standard (from 1572 until 1700). 5. Imperial program of
the Russian SCS: creating naturally dependent vassals and further homeland
growth; expansion into neighbouring SCS-s as resistance to Western SCS pressure
onto these SCS-s (from 1700 until 1917). 6. Communist program of the Russian
SCS: defining boundaries of own socio-cultural spaces (especially internal and
external buffer zones); leading the global war against Western SCS expansion
outside its homeland (1917 - 1991). 7. Nationalist program of the Russian SCS:
re-structuring own socio-cultural spaces; maintaining balance of socio-cultural
powers in the World (from the end of the XX century and for some future)
HINDU SCS
1. Initial period of the Indian population
existence and rise of the ancient Hindu civilisations as a form of sporadic
colonisation of the territory. Rise of the Hindu SCS religious, cultural and
social foundations (2500-s - 327 BC). 2. First contacts with Muslim SCS.
Beginning of the homeland growth and establishing the North-Western buffer zone
(327 BC - 711 AD). 3. Muslim SCS attacks withstanded. Creating the buffer zone
on the joints with Muslim SCS (711 - early XIII century). 4. Muslim SCS
intervention and establishing the vassal military-political control over the
Northern and Central regions of the Hindu homeland. Further evolution of the
Hindu homeland (early XIII century - 1658). 5. Military-political control of
the Great Britain and co-operation with it to withstand the Muslim SCS
expansion. Adaptation of Western innovations and Hindu population diffusion
into other socio-cultural formations as a vassals of British colonists.
Creating the internal buffer zones; conflict with Muslim and Chinese SCS-s for
the external buffer zones (1658 - 1945). 6. Transition to an indirect forms of
co-operation with Western SCS in the struggle against Muslim and Chinese SCS-s.
Extreme point of the conflict with Muslim SCS for control over buffer zones.
Further developing the internal buffer zones; efforts to transform the external
buffer zones into naturally dependent vassals (from 1945 and for some future).
7. Prognostic stage: Retention of the indirect forms of co-operation
with Western SCS to withstand the Muslim and Chinese SCS-s expansion. Final
stages of creating the internal and external buffer zones.
Political-geographical transformation of the Hindu homeland based on its own
socio-cultural standards (more distant future)
SOUTH-AMERICAN SCS
1. Initial existence of the South-American
population and sporadic colonisation of the territory in form of the most
ancient civilisations (from ancient times until the end of the XV century). 2.
Socio-cultural integration with Western and Black African SCS-s. Spatial
colonisation / assimilation of the territory and creating the renewed basis for
South-American SCS (from 1490-s until the 1823 Monroe Doctrine). 3.
Establishing the internal buffer zones and re-structuring own territory based
on the national states’ principles. Permanent military-political and economic
presence of Western SCS (represented by the USA) (1823 - 1918). 4. Operative
involvement of the USA into South-American SCS rising. Introduction of
economic, social and military innovations. Further creating the internal buffer
zones. Co-operation of South-American and Russian SCS-s in the struggle against
permanent presence of the USA (1918 - 1980-s). 5. Liberation of the
South-American SCS homeland from military, economic and political presence of
all the alien socio-cultural systems. Creating the buffer zone with Western SCS
(in the mixed socio-cultural region with Western predominance in North
America). Operative conversion of the submitted Western economic and social
innovations (from 1980-s and for some future). 6. Prognostic stage:
Socio-cultural contest in South-American SCS and its re-structuring in
accordance with the own renewed socio-cultural standards (this period may last
for a 100 years or more). 7. Prognostic stage: Further intensive
development of the South-American SCS territory based on its own socio-cultural
standards (quite distant future)
BLACK AFRICAN SCS
1. Initial period of the Black African
population existence on the territory of its homeland, at the stage of
clan-tribal organisation (from ancient times until IV century AD). 2. Beginning
of the contacts with Muslim SCS, rise of the early States; creating the
Northern and Eastern internal buffer zones (IV century - 1490-s). 3. Beginning
of the contacts with Western SCS, creating the Western and Southern internal
buffer zones. Overseas diffusion of the Black African population and
establishing the enclave-communities within alien socio-cultural formations.
Participation in the evolution of South-American SCS, on its 2nd stage (1490-s
- 1880-s). 4. Spatial seizure of Black African SCS by Western SCS. Introduction
of the superficial economic, social and military innovations. Co-operation of
Black African and Russian SCS-s in the struggle against Western SCS control
over the Black African homeland (1880-s - 1960). 5. Liberation of the Black
African SCS homeland from military, economic and political presence of all the
alien socio-cultural systems. Operative conversion of the submitted economic
and social innovations (from 1960 and for some future). 6. Prognostic stage:
Socio-cultural contest in Black African SCS and its re-structuring in
accordance with the own renewed socio-cultural standards (this period may last
for a 100 years or more). 7. Prognostic stage: Further intensive
development of Black African SCS based on its own socio-cultural standards.
Establishing connections between the Black African homeland and its overseas
enclave-communities (quite distant future)
* * *
We also present
here the general table of periods and subperiods in the socio-cultural systems’
evolution. The “socio-cultural age” is extremely important for understanding
potential political, economic, religious, ethnic and regional conflicts.
GENERAL TABLE OF
PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS
IN THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS’ EVOLUTION
SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS
|
Periods of evolution
|
Number of completed subperiods in the SCS’
evolution
|
Number of completed subperiods by the time when 7.1.
begins
|
1st
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
4th
|
5th
|
6th
|
7th
|
Number of subperiods within a period
|
Barbarian-Nomadic SCS
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
unknown for the time being
|
17
|
Muslim
SCS
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
unknown for the time being
|
18
|
18
|
Chinese
SCS
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
unknown for the time being
|
18
|
18
|
Western SCS
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
2
|
unknown for the time being
|
18
|
18
|
Russian
SCS
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
unknown for the time being
|
17
|
17
|
Hindu
SCS
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
unknown for the time being
|
prognosis
|
15
|
Prognosis
17 - 18
|
South-American SCS
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
unknown for the time being
|
prognosis
|
prognosis
|
9
|
Prognosis
17 - 18
|
Black
African SCS
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
unknown for the time being
|
prognosis
|
prognosis
|
10
|
Prognosis
17 - 18
|
Average
number of subperiods within a period
|
1
|
2.75
|
2.75
|
2.5
|
4
|
3.2
|
unknown for the time being
|
Total
122
|
Prognosis 139 - 142
|
Автор Dmitry V. Nikolaenko