Migration in Kazakhstan. 20 Years of Independence
American
University of Central Asia
Migration
in Kazakhstan
Years
of Independence
: Ernistof Kairat: Konstants L. A.
Bishkek
2012
Content
IntroductionMigration in Kazakhstanin Kazakhstan
during 1991-2004in Kazakhstan during 2004-2010Migration in Kazakhstan12
Introduction
always was one of the most important sources of population
for individual countries and continents, it has a significant impact on labor
supply in labor markets, changing the ethnic and sex and age structure of
population of some states, and it is closely related to flows of capital and
entrepreneurs.Human Capital Theory explains the reasons of migration to make
analysis of worker mobility more predictable. So, it predicts that migration
will flow from poor area to the areas where opportunities and earnings are
better. Moreover it says that migration is higher among young and
better-educated people. Also The Human Capital Theory clearly predicts that as
costs of migration rises, the flow migrants will decrease. Here I list the most
important predictions of the theory which I use to explain Kazakhstan’s
migration flows.is the 9th largest country in the world with population about
16 million. For Kazakhstan pay a lot of attention to migration in recent times
because it has very big demographic problem. Since independence of Kazakhstan
there started new migration dynamics. As we know migration could be divided
into external and internal. Kazakhstan’s external migration for the period of
independence could be considered in two stages: first is outflow after collapse
of USSR for the period 1991-2004 and second inflow of ethnic Kazakhs for the
period 2004-2010. Compare to external migration internal migration in
Kazakhstan was stable. From 1991 till 2010 internal migration didn’t exceed
more than 450000 people per year.this paper it is analyzed the external and
internal migration in Kazakhstan for the period of 1991-2010. It was found that
the human capital theory was proved by the statistics from Agency of Statistics
of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Migration in Kazakhstan as in the theory is
determined by economic factors, first of all income: people are more
likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to
regions with a higher income level. Furthermore, mobility is larger between
more populated regions. Distance has a strong negative impact on migration,
indicating high migration related costs and risks.rest part of paper is
structured as follow: Section 2 describes external migration in Kazakhstan.
Section 3 presents internal migration in Kazakhstan and the last Section 4
conclude.
External
Migration in Kazakhstan
External migration in Kazakhstan for last years is positive
and in 2010 the balance of migration is accounted for 15465 people. The
immigration to Kazakhstan for 2010 is 41996 people and emigration from
Kazakhstan for 2010 is 26531 people. External migration in Kazakhstan is
divided into two big parts. First part considers period from 1991-2004 and the
second part considers period from 2004-2010.
migration kazakhstan human capital
Migration
in Kazakhstan during 1991-2004
First Half of 90s
the first half of the 1990s there was big flow of nationalism
generated by the processes of the country's sovereignty that was particularly
noticeable at the household level. Nationalism was a trigger of big wave of
emigration from Kazakhstan. It was largely provoked, and then stepped up shock
reaction of Russian-speaking population, and became one of the most important
factors in a powerful wave of emigration from Kazakhstan.major causes of
out-migration in Germany, is listed below:
1) Higher standard of living
in Germany;
2) Historical, cultural,
ethnic, kinship ties, which are determined is still quite numerous German
population of Kazakhstan, formed in 1940-1950s.;
3) The Government of Germany
promoted the returning of ethnic Germans to their historic homeland in the
1980s.;
4) Formed in Germany large
"Diaspora of the Soviet Germans" - immigrants from the Soviet Union
and then from the CIS countries. On the basis of the "diaspora" have
formed fairly stable migration networks. “Diaspora” promotes migration to
Germany even now and makes easy adaptation of immigrants.determining the nature
of the migration to Russia are much different from the mentioned above.
1) The most powerful wave of
out-migration from Kazakhstan to Russia formed the Soviet Union's collapse.
Shock reaction of the population has led to a powerful flow of migration of the
first half of the 1990s.;
2) Conservation of the
extensive kinship, friendship, business connections, which are formed on the
basis of extensive migration networks, which, on the one hand, facilitate the
adaptation of migrants in Russia, irrevocable, and the other - are an important
basis for the temporary migration;
3) The nature of
nation-building in Kazakhstan:
Second Half of 90s
in
Kazakhstan during 2004-2010
migration situation in Kazakhstan in 2002-2005 has
significant changes. Formed in 2004 the positive balance of external migration
in 2005 increased by more than 8 times and has reached 22,668 people. Despite
the fact that in absolute terms, it is not yet large, positive momentum in the
last 5-6 years can be traced quite clearly. As a result, the country's
population is gradually increasing.2005-2006 there is rapid increase of the
existing balance and it is fixed maximum immigration rate 33,061 people. It is
related to governmental programs as “oralman” that aims to return ethnics
Kazakhs to their historical homeland.2006 migration in Kazakhstan has
decreasing tendency till 2008. Experts explain it by the banking crisis of 2007
in Kazakhstan, which began as a result of the crisis in mortgage lending in the
U.S., which led to a rapid increase in inflation, the slowdown of the economy.
In turn, this led to a marked decline in the level and quality of life of
Kazakhstan.
Migration
in Kazakhstan
period 1999-2009 is not only an increase in the number of
internal migrants, but also the ratio of inter-regional and intraregional
migration in the overall migration process.migration in the intercensal period
1989-1999 accounted for the vast majority - 92% of the country, the migration
within the region - only 8%. In 1999-2009 interregional migration has is - 42%
of intraregional - 58%. The share of migrants traveling within the region grew
by 7 times. Every second of the migrant the results of the last census - people
who migrate within the region.reason of internal migration is connected with
the decline of agriculture and rural regions, disproportionate development of
the regions of the country. According to M. Asanbaeva, vice-President of the
Kazakhstan Center for Humanities and political situation, "Internal
migration of population of Kazakhstan - a natural process caused by the
unresolved issues in a complex socio-economic development regions”.
Conclusion
this paper it was analyzed the external and internal
migration in Kazakhstan for the period of 1991-2010. The external migration was
considered in two steps before 2000 year and after. It was made because in 90s
the balance of migration was negative and the reasons were similar. After 90s
the tendency of migration was upward and in 2004 became positive. After all
analysis it was found that the human capital theory was proved by the
statistics from Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan., in the first
half of 90s Germans and Russians leave Kazakhstan for better opportunities in
their historical homeland, it was one of the reasons. Also nationalism in those
years gave more reasons for these two ethnics leave the country. Moreover even
after 90s there was accepted public policy that required knowledge of the state
Kazakh language which makes life of Russian speaking population more
difficult.positive balance of migration after 90s exactly in 2004 is the reason
of governmental programs which were aimed to return ethnic Kazakhs into the
historical homeland. In 2006 there was achieved a maximum balance of migration
for the independent years of Kazakhstan (33,041 people). After 2006 the
tendency of migration became downward till 2008, as Agency of Statistics of the
Republic of Kazakhstan says it was the result of banking crisis in Kazakhstan
in 2007 (1,300 people). From 2009 external migration started its’ recovery and
in 2010 it is fixed on 15,465 people.external migration we can conclude that
now there is no large outflow of Russians and Germans as it was in 90s however
the balance of migration for these ethnics is negative. But in whole the
migration stabilize after 90s and became positive.internal migration in
Kazakhstan for 1991-2010 is the same as it was for everybody 100 years ago. And
as Human Capital theory predicts that young and better educated people strive
for better opportunities in Kazakhstan people from rural areas strive to urban
areas. However for 2011 rural population is 40% of total population probably it
could be explain with Human Capital Theory that in the poorest places with
lower levels of wealth, education and skills - there is small amount of people
whose willingness to move is high.
Bibliography
1. Barbara Dietz, Kseniia
Gatskova, and Achim Schmillen. “Migration and Remittances in Kazakhstan: First
Evidence from a Household Survey” Arbeitsbereich Wirtschaft, Migration und Integration Working
Papers No. 304. Nov 2011. 30 Mar 2012
2. Агентство
Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Казахстан за годы независимости 1991-2010»
Статистический сборник 2011. Mar 30 2012
. Агентство
Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Анализ текущего учета миграционных
процессов в Республике Казахстан.» Отчет 2009. Mar 30 2012
. Агентство
Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Регионы Казахстана в 2007 году.» Mar 30 2012
. Агентство
Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Регионы Казахстана в 2011 году.» Mar 30 2012
. Константин
Григоричев. “Современная Миграция из Казахстана” CAMMIC Working Papers No.6.
2008. Mar 30
2012.
<#"557564.files/image003.gif">
: Казахстан за годы независимости. <#"557564.files/image005.gif">
Figure 5 The structure of emigration in the context of
ethnicity for 1999 -2008.,%
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <#"557564.files/image006.gif">
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <#"557564.files/image007.gif">
Figure 7 External migration by ethnic group: Russian
1999-2008., Pers.
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. #"557564.files/image008.gif">
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <#"557564.files/image009.gif">
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. #"557564.files/image010.gif">
Source:
Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <#"557564.files/image011.gif">
: Регионы Казахстана в 2007 году. <#"557564.files/image013.gif">
: Казахстан за годы независимости. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/20111/KazNezav.pdf>